There are a few hours left before the start of the final round of Group C at ESL Pro League Season 16. Three fights, which will go on parallel broadcasts, will answer only one question: Which team will be the third lucky one and advance to the playoffs?
It is already known for sure that the MOUZ and Heroic teams secured their place in the TOP-3 of Group C, guaranteed to get into the playoffs. In turn, the French team HEET will definitely not stay in the championship, having lost their chances the day before. Well, Complexity, Astralis and ENCE will fight for the third ticket to the playoffs from the group.
In the following article, we will outline the possible handouts based on the results of the final matches of Group C at ESL Pro League Season 16.
Who will be the winner of group C
Let's start with the most likely scenario where teams MOUZ and Heroic defeat HEET and Astralis respectively. As a result, both teams will have 12 points, but the "mice" will be higher due to the victory in the head-to-head match.
It looks quite obvious alignment in which one of the teams wins and the other loses. For example, MOUZ beats HEET, while Heroic loses to Astralis. Then the “mice” will take the first line and go directly to the quarterfinals. Conversely, in the event of a victory over Astralis, as well as the defeat of MOUZ, Heroic guarantees itself the first place in group C.
However, there are other layouts that are worth talking about in more detail.
The main intrigue in the sextet
Since two teams have already guaranteed a place in the playoffs, and one team has been eliminated, three teams remain in the race for the third slot in the playoffs - Complexity, Astralis and ENCE. We propose to consider possible scenarios and estimate the final distribution of places in the group C table.
- MOUZ < HEET, Heroic < Astralis, ENCE < Complexity. In this case, we will immediately get four teams with 9 points each. As a result, we will have to look at head-to-head meetings of the teams = Astralis (1st place), MOUZ (2nd place), Heroic (3rd place)
- MOUZ < HEET, Heroic < Astralis, ENCE > Complexity. Now the North American team is out of the fight for the playoffs = Astralis (1st place), MOUZ (2nd place), Heroic (3rd place)
- MOUZ < HEET, Heroic > Astralis, ENCE < Complexity. In case of defeat in the derby, as well as the victory of Complexity in their duel, Astralis will drop out of the race for a place in the playoffs = Heroic (1st place), MOUZ (2nd place), Complexity (3rd place)
- MOUZ < HEET, Heroic > Astralis, ENCE > Complexity. An equally interesting scenario, in which the ENCE team gets into the fight for the TOP-3. As a result, we will again have to calculate the results of face-to-face confrontations = Heroic (1st place), MOUZ (2nd place), ENCE (3rd place), Complexity (4th place), Astralis (5th place), HEET (6th)
- MOUZ > HEET, Heroic > Astralis, ENCE > Complexity. The most likely scenario where ENCE, even despite the victory over Complexity, will fly past the playoffs = MOUZ (1st place), Heroic (2nd place), Astralis (3rd place)
ESL Pro League Season 16 runs from August 31st to October 2nd in Malta at the Salini Resort. 24 teams from Europe, CIS, North and South America compete for a total prize pool of $835,000. The winner of the tournament will receive the main prize of $175,000, as well as tickets to BLAST Premier: World Final 2022 and IEM Katowice 2023.