Polymarket Says GTA 6 Is Winning GOTY Award at The Game Awards 2026 Comfortably

This year, the stars may align just enough for GTA 6—the most anticipated game of this generation—to be nominated for The Game Awards, the gaming industry’s biggest awards ceremony. For a long time, there was speculation that Rockstar’s new title wouldn’t be eligible due to its late release date, but a recent report confirmed that games released no later than November 20 are eligible—and GTA 6 goes on sale the day before that.

However, the nominees for the TGA 2026 have not yet been announced, but almost everyone is certain GTA 6 will be in the running. Recent predictions on Polymarket also point to this, especially regarding the main award—Game of the Year. According to the results, GTA 6 has an 86% chance of winning this category. By comparison, its closest competitor, Resident Evil Requiem, has a 7% chance, while Phantom Blade Zero and Crimson Desert have 3% and 2%, respectively. Control Resonant and Pragmata each have a 1% chance, while 007 First Light, Marvel’s Wolverine, Onimusha: Way of the Sword, and others have less than a 1% chance.

Interestingly, GTA 6 is also considered an early favorite in other categories. The odds that the game will win “Best Game Direction” currently stand at 67%, and for “Best Narrative,” at 55%. Meanwhile, another poll on Polymarket shows that there is a 99% probability of GTA 6 receiving a Metacritic score of 92+, and 60% of respondents are confident the game will score 97—the same as GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2.

However, for now, this is nothing more than speculation. The nominees for The Game Awards 2026 are expected to be announced in the coming weeks, at which point it will become clear whether GTA 6 should be considered a favorite. You can also check out predictions for the winners in the main categories at The Game Awards 2026.

Grand Theft Auto VI launches on November 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S. The Game Awards 2026 will take place on December 10.