Galaxy Digital Expects BTC to Drop to $56,000

According to the latest analysis from Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, BTC may gradually drop to the $70,000 zone in the coming weeks or months, and in the worst-case scenario, test the realized price and the 200-week moving average in the $56,000-$58,000 range. This warning is based on current market trends and supported by data from various sources.

Current BTC Market State

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $78,000, which is -38% from its all-time high (ATH) of $126,000, reached on October 6, 2025. This level of correction hasn't been seen since early 2024. Among the negative factors highlighted by Thorn and other analysts:

46% of all BTC in loss

About half of the Bitcoin supply is currently unprofitable for holders, increasing the risk of capitulation.

Breached 50-week moving average

This technical indicator has already been broken, signaling trend weakness.

Weak demand from whales

Large investors are not showing activity in accumulation, hindering recovery.

Lack of correlation with gold and silver

Despite macroeconomic chaos, BTC is not growing alongside traditional "safe-haven" assets like gold.

ETF holders' losses

The average BTC purchase price for ETF holders is around $84,000, and they are currently in the red, which could lead to further sales.

These factors, according to Thorn, indicate that the market has not yet reached bottom. In his post on X, Thorn emphasized that while short-term rallies (like the recent one to $98,000) are possible, the overall trend remains downward.

Predictions for 2026

Our own analysis based on current data shows that Galaxy Digital's opinion is not isolated. A number of experts and firms share a pessimistic view on the short-term outlook but are optimistic about the long-term.

• According to CNBC, BTC price forecasts for the end of 2026 range from $75,000 to $225,000. Galaxy Digital describes 2026 as "too chaotic" for accurate predictions due to geopolitical risks, monetary policy changes, and AI's impact on capital.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts a strong year for BTC thanks to potential rate cuts and favorable regulation. Bit Mining expects up to $225,000, while Galaxy Digital sees $250,000 by the end of 2027.
• On Polymarket, the probability of BTC falling below $65,000 in 2026 is estimated at 60%. Other traders on X forecast a range of $55,000-$65,000 in July-October.

While short-term risks for Bitcoin remain high, with a potential drop to $56,000-$58,000, the long-term forecast from Galaxy Digital and other firms remains positive. Investors are advised to monitor key support levels and macroeconomic indicators. This analysis is based on data as of February 3, 2026, and the cryptocurrency market can change rapidly.