Bitcoin Celebrates Its 17th Anniversary: From Satoshi's Revolutionary Launch to Signs of a Transitional Market Phase

Bitcoin marks the 17th anniversary of the day when the mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block - the first block in the BTC blockchain, embedded in 2009. This historic moment not only launched a revolution in digital finance but also became a symbol of resistance to the traditional banking system, as evidenced by the message embedded in the genesis block: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." Over 17 years, Bitcoin has evolved from an experimental idea to a global asset with a market capitalization exceeding $1.7 trillion, while the entire crypto market has reached $4 trillion, although late 2025 saw an outflow of $4.57 billion from institutional spot ETFs. Amid the celebrations, analysts note a transitional market phase where internal metrics are weakening, and macro conditions are adding pressure.

The current Bitcoin price is hovering around $90,000, closing at $90,106.76 yesterday, indicating stabilization after a volatile 2025. Traders are watching for a potential "anniversary rally," as historically January often brings positive momentum for BTC. However, on-chain metrics paint a cautious picture. The Supply in Profit (%) indicator is a metric that measures the share of BTC supply that is in profit, comparing the current price to the price of the last coin movement. Currently, this indicator stands at 68.85%, placing the market in a transitional phase (55%-80%), typical for late stages of the cycle. This is not a short-term correction but a prolonged decline over several months, starting from October 2024, signaling accumulated market fatigue. Internal indicators are gradually weakening, while macro conditions - ongoing geopolitical risks, the growing appeal of safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, continue to pressure risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

At this stage, the market can be viewed as in the early phase of transitioning from bullish to bearish, where conservative positions and disciplined risk management become key. This is confirmed by the situation with corporate BTC holders: at least 37 of the 100 largest companies holding Bitcoin in their treasuries are currently trading at a discount relative to their net asset value (NAV). This means that nearly 40% of these companies are valued on the market less than the worth of their BTC holdings. Such dynamics emerged after the 2025 boom, when companies initially traded at a premium, allowing them to issue shares to buy additional BTC without diluting shareholder value. However, the premium disappeared in October 2025, leading to underperformance against the S&P 500 (only one company outperformed the index) and losses on 60% of BTC holdings. Examples include Strategy and Twenty One Capital (17% discount), H100 Group (32%), and Vanadi Coffee (61%). As a result, these companies cannot issue new shares to expand their BTC portfolios, as this leads to a decrease in shareholder value, potentially leading to market consolidation through acquisitions of weaker players.

Despite the challenges, Bitcoin's 17th anniversary serves as a reminder of its resilience: from a cypherpunk idea to a macro asset influencing the global economy. Analysts advise investors to focus on long-term trends, as historically such transitional phases have preceded new growth cycles.